The Stubborn Persistence of Conservative Religion in American Public Life and the Vatican
Somewhat uniquely among the democracies of the Western world, the United States has stubbornly defied the predictions of the secularization thesis for as long as there has been a secularization thesis. With each new decade of the past half century, pundits have pointed to data showing what looks like a decline in American religiosity, and looked eagerly to the day when the nation could cast off its moth-eaten revivalist robes and fully embrace the brave new post-religious world that western Europe had already charted out. With each new decade, though, the same commentators have had cause to lament an America still seemingly in the grip of faith-based politics.
The Robust Political Force of American Christianity
Conservative Christianity seems as robust a political force in America as it has ever been, if not more so. The warnings of impending theocracy swelled again to a fever pitch following Donald Trump’s election in 2016, with the support of 81 percent of “white evangelical” voters, and the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot fueled by so-called Christian nationalism. With evangelical Christians leading a nationwide backlash against transgender activism, and flush with victory following the overturning of Roe v. Wade after nearly five decades of struggle, the movement continues to shape the national political agenda.
Indeed, at the 2022 National Conservatism conference, which has become a leading convener for the once dissident, now nearly mainstream, politics of the New Right, few topics received more airtime than God, Scripture, and the necessity of remembering and renewing a recognizably Christian America. Why, then, does Christianity in America keep defying prophecies of its disappearance? There are several possible explanations. Possibly, it is a result of the effect Nassim Nicholas Taleb has referred to as the “dominance of the stubborn minority”: if the numerical decline of American Christianity has occurred at its least committed margins, then the hardy core that remains may represent a more robust form of religiosity, one capable of exerting a stronger magnetic pull on the surrounding society than a larger but more dilute Christianity might.
Conservative Catholic Influence and the Papal Conclave
Beyond the borders of the United States, a group of hardline conservative Catholics are pushing for the next pope to be better aligned to their worldview. A vocal faction who have discredited Francis as a heretic, the anti-pope and even the “Anti-Christ” for his supposedly liberal outlook, have been waiting in the wings. This campaign to discredit reforms stems from a growing body of well-financed, U.S.-based conservative Catholic nonprofit groups, working with far-right politicians to promote a cocktail of Catholic doctrine and nationalism.
Key organizations and initiatives include:
- The Napa Institute: Known for luxurious annual conferences that aim to blend conservative theology and libertarian economics, with an emphasis on apologetics, sexual ethics and countercultural anti-secularization.
- Sophia Institute Press: Funds the traditionalist Catholic blog One Peter Five, which regularly rebuked Francis.
- The Red Hat Report: Launched in 2018, it aimed to use former FBI investigators to compile dossiers on each cardinal, noting their theological and pastoral priorities.
Financial Vulnerabilities and Political Ties
The conservative right’s influence may also benefit from the Vatican’s increasingly dire financial situation. With the city state reportedly seeking outside funding, the selection of the next pope could be vulnerable to wealthy right-wing donors in the U.S. Some conservative influencers are pushing hard-right candidates, such as Bishop Athanasius Schneider, Cardinal Robert Sarah, and Cardinal Raymond Burke, an arch-traditionalist who has endorsed U.S. President Donald Trump.
Statistical Overview of Religious-Political Alignment
The following table illustrates the intersection of religious identification and political support based on the provided data:
| Group / Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| White Evangelical support for Donald Trump (2016) | 81% |
| Catholic voters supporting Donald Trump | 56% |
| Vatican income shortfall | Up to €83 million |
As John Yep, CEO of Catholics for Catholics, stated: "Cardinals realize that even though some of the leaders may be of a liberal bent they know that their flocks back home are really tending towards more conservative." This stubborn persistence of conservative religion wedded to conservative politics continues to challenge the secularization thesis on a global scale.